Chapter 1: Overview of Global Carbon Emissions

Recent reports indicate that carbon emissions worldwide are on the rise, though the pace of this increase has moderated compared to previous years.

In 2019, global carbon dioxide emissions are estimated to reach 40.57 billion tons (36.8 billion metric tons), marking an increase of nearly 255 million tons (231 million metric tons) from 2018. This information comes from scientific studies by the Global Carbon Project, which have shown a 0.6% rise from the previous year.

In contrast to the significant growth rates of 2.1% and 1.5% observed in the past, the current figures reflect a more measured increase. The burning of fossil fuels has contributed to a rise in global temperatures of 1.8 degrees Fahrenheit (1 degree Celsius) since the pre-industrial era. As world leaders convene in Madrid to address climate change, the goal is to limit future warming to an additional 1.8 degrees.

"Although emissions have grown at a slower rate than last year, we still set a new global record. It's difficult to feel optimistic about this," stated Rob Jackson, a climate scientist from Stanford University and co-author of the study. "The U.S. National Academy of Sciences raised concerns about carbon and climate change 40 years ago. Since then, global emissions have doubled, propelling the world toward catastrophic climate consequences."

The 2019 estimates are derived from data collected during the first nine to ten months of the year, with some national figures based on just six months of data, as noted by co-author Glen Peters, a climate scientist in Norway. Historical projections have generally proven accurate.

To put it into perspective, every second this year has seen the release of 2.57 million pounds of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere—equivalent to the weight of two Airbus A380s, the largest passenger aircraft in operation.

Section 1.1: Regional Emission Trends

Both the United States and the European Union experienced a decline in emissions, with a 1.7% reduction from 2018 to 2019. In contrast, China recorded a 2.6% increase in emissions, while India saw a rise of 1.8%. Notably, China remains the largest emitter, accounting for 28% of global emissions in 2019, followed by the United States at 14.5%.

Natalie Mahowald, a climate scientist at Cornell University, who was not involved in the report, expressed concern: "While this isn't disastrous news, it is still troubling. A more aggressive shift from coal to renewable energy sources like solar and wind is essential to meet climate goals."

Subsection 1.1.1: Coal's Declining Role

Worldwide carbon pollution from coal has decreased nearly 1% due to significant reductions in the United States and Europe, which both saw drops of 10%. However, emissions from cleaner natural gas increased by 2.6%. Coal remains the leading source of anthropogenic carbon emissions, contributing 16 billion tons (14.6 billion metric tons) of carbon dioxide this year, ahead of oil and gas. According to the U.S. Energy Information Administration, coal emits 76% more carbon dioxide than natural gas for the same energy output.

"I don't believe we've seen the end of coal just yet, but it is certainly on the decline," Peters remarked. "However, this decline may be gradual due to the existing infrastructure in Asia."

Despite the decrease in coal usage, global emissions are not on the most severe trajectory outlined by the UN's Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Still, Peters warned that the other high-emission scenarios are not favorable for life on Earth.

Chapter 2: A Call for Action

The first video titled "If we stop emitting... then what..?" discusses the potential outcomes if global emissions were to cease.

The second video, "President Obama Speaks on Climate Change," features insights from the former president regarding the urgent need for climate action.

Princeton University's Michael Oppenheimer, who did not participate in the study, characterized the current data as disheartening: "Looking back over 30 years, there is no indication that we are making significant progress in reducing carbon dioxide emissions."

Between 2000 and 2018, the U.S. managed a 9.7% reduction in carbon emissions, but Jackson's analysis reveals that 11 other nations have achieved larger percentage decreases in the same timeframe. The U.K., for instance, has cut its carbon output by about one-third, while Greece and Italy have both reduced emissions by over 28%. Meanwhile, emissions from China have tripled, and those from India have risen by 157%.

"The data indicates that the U.S. is not leading in emissions reduction efforts, highlighting that we could do better," asserted Jonathan Overpeck, the environment dean at the University of Michigan. "This reinforces the urgent need for more U.S. international leadership. I remain hopeful that we can change course… but if we don't, the planet's future is bleak."

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Follow Seth Borenstein on Twitter at @borenbears.

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